www.bbfin.com

“If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain - an extremely unfortunate loophole in the system of Western democratic capitalism, which never forsaw that in a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.”  - Matt Taibbi

While many companies and individuals have been devastated and are only beginning to recognize encouraging economic signs, Goldman Sachs reported record 2nd-quarter earnings of $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, blowing away the analysts’ consensus forecast of $3.54 a share.  If you work for Goldman, you are probably feeling pretty good right now - at least about your compensation.  It is just possible that Goldman will come to regret achieving this remarkable profitability when the rest of the world is suffering.  It is as though they have suddenly reached the pinnacle and in the process they have drawn the wrath of the masses.  Many are suggesting that Goldman Sachs is playing with a stacked deck, and from what I have read I tend to agree.  But…I also recognize that most companies and individuals would gladly game the system (the way Goldman apparently does) if it meant they would enjoy the same remarkable success.

Let’s be honest - it’s easy to sit on the sidelines or from an unfavorable position and take potshots at Goldman.  We should really ask ourselves if we would actually slack up on our potential if we were in the same position.  I think the answer is no…we would not.  We would ride the wave until we could ride it no longer!  I only wonder if Gordon Gecko (Stanley Weiser’s brilliant character in Wall Street) was correct when he said, “…greed, for lack of a better word, is good…and greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.”  The rest of the world is wondering too - and only time will tell…

“Civilizations have arisen in other parts of the world.  In ancient and modern times, wonderful ideas have been carried forward from one race to another…But mark you, my friends, it has been always with the blast of war trumpets and the march of embattled cohorts…This, many other nations have taught; but India for thousands of years peacefully existed.  Here activity prevailed when even Greece did not exist…We, of all nations of the world, have never been a conquering race, and that blessing is on our head, and therefore we live…” - Swami Vivekananda

A couple of weeks ago I travelled to New Delhi, Mumbai and Kochi (near the cape) on business.  India is a land of such incredible social diversity and cultural complexity.  If you have been there, you know that words alone cannot describe the experience.

Improvement opportunities abound and the quality of life for millions is quite dreadful, but there are some good things to report as well.  For one, India’s GDP is still one of the fastest growing at ~6.5%.  Many Indians were expecting to surpass China this year and although this now seems unlikely, being a close second is nothing to sneeze at.  According to the people I spoke with, they haven’t noticed much of a slowdown so far.  The banks are still lending, capital and construction projects are not being cancelled or delayed, and domestic flights are at capacity.  According to EconomyWatch, the Indian government has earmarked 23.8 trillion rupees (US $560 billion) for infrastructure upgrades.  It expects to fund 70% of the project costs with the other 30% being supplied by the private sector.  Ports, airports, roads and railways are all seen as vital for the Indian economy and have been targeted for investment.

I must admit, I’m not ready to pack up and move there yet, but I do look forward to witnessing India’s progress over the next ten to twenty years.  I suspect if they can somehow figure out a way to control the population and improve the standard of living for all, India could find itself in a position of global significance.

“Real Estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away.  Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world.” - Frankin D. Roosevelt

The economy of the Southeastern U.S., where I live, has been fueled largely by real estate transactions for the past ten-plus years.  From my travels throughout the U.S., I believe this to be the case in most regions.  Just about every individual, company, or organization has derived income or at least some degree of financial gain from the sale of residential or commercial real estate.  In addition to the agents, bankers, attorneys, architects, engineers, contractors, suppliers, truck drivers, etc. who are reeling because of the crash, now city, county, state and federal governments along with hospitals, schools, development authorities and everyone in between is feeling the pain.

Even worse, countless people who financed the purchase of a house over the past two to four years now sit on an upside-down mortgage.  This of course means that they owe the bank or mortgage company more than the house is worth in the market place.  This is a problem for the individual and the bank and it highlights another problem.  Not only have the banks loaned money for single-family residential real estate, but many have also loaned billions of dollars for luxury multi-story condos and residential developments that are now worth a fraction of what they were valued at just a few years ago.

I mention all this not to depress anyone further, but because I believe real estate can be a good place to invest once again (eventually), but not if speculation continues to be as prevalent in the future as it was over the past five years.  Real estate will only gradually increase in value if a large percentage of the purchasers intend to occupy or utilize the properties and can legitimately afford to meet the loan requirements.  When it seems like everyone you meet is flipping real estate for a profit, you better stay clear because it is only a matter of time before the bubble will burst.

Along with real estate, the broader global economy is in shambles too, and this is largely because we ignored basic business fundamentals - namely real value creation.  Over the past 10 to 15 years, many of the brightest minds rejected careers in science, engineering and corporate business and instead chose finance for a shot at the big time on Wall Street.  They learned quickly and helped develop extremely innovative and complex derivatives and financial models (see www.bankingwithjimmy.wordpress.com for more insight).  Mostly what they did was manipulate and game for their own significant gain - instead of contributing to the process of creating value.  There is certainly a place for finance, but real value creation comes from the goods being manufactured or the services being provided - not super complex derivatives that hedge or leverage and make a few individuals extremely wealthy while wiping everyone else out.

So once again - we have the opportunity to rise from the ashes.  Hopefully we can learn from our foolish greed and “irrational exuberance” and avoid another global economic disaster for the next fifty years or so.

“Of all the inventions that have helped to unify China perhaps the airplane is the most outstanding.  Its ability to annihilate distance has been in direct proportion to its achievements in assisting to annihilate suspicion and misunderstanding among provincial officials far removed from one another or from the officials at the seat of government.” - Madame Chiang Kai-Shek

It occurred to me recently while I was watching coverage of the G-20 in London that despite the reality that the United States and China are something less than allies in a diplomatic sense, the two countries are certainly joined at the hip economically.  This amuses me greatly when I think about what many of us in the U.S. - at least of my generation - were taught in school about China and communism in general.

Coincidently, yesterday I received an article published by Wharton Business School that included some very interesting facts and figures that support my observation above.  Most amazing, “China’s foreign exchange reserves have increased sharply over the past decade, from $216 billion in 2001 to $1.52 trillion in 2007, then $1.95 trillion in 2008.  Some estimates put the current figure as high as $2.3 trillion.  As a percent of GDP, China’s foreign exchange reserves grew from 15.3% in 2001 to 45% in 2008.  Economists estimate that about 70% of those reserves are held in dollar-backed assets.  China now holds as much as $1.36 trillion in U.S. securities and government debt.”  For more, read Attached at the Wallet: The Delicate Financial Relationship between the U.S. and China.

Most believe that China merely considers U.S. Treasury-backed debt the safest investment they can make, but others are suspicious that China is primarily keeping the value of the Yuan low and the U.S. economy as liquid as possible in order to sell more Chinese goods.  I am convinced the truth lies somewhere in between.  It is quite clear that unless China just wants to wipe out the whole global economy (which seems unlikely) - then these two super powers will continue to operate in much the same manner.  The U.S. certainly needs China to continue buying her debt and China needs the U.S. to keep buying Chinese products - and all the other countries are essentially on the sidelines hoping that nothing happens to damage this relationship beyond repair.

“I will die and go to hell if it’s a Ponzi scheme - it’s no Ponzi scheme…if it is a Ponzi scheme, why are they finding billions and billions of dollars all over the place?” - R. Allen Stanford

Well, I didn’t do very well last month with only one post, so I will try to do better in April.  I thought it was about time we revisited the status of Messrs. Madoff and Stanford.  As most of you probably noticed, there has been a good deal of continuing coverage on Mr. Madoff, but Mr. Stanford hasn’t received much national coverage since the initial story broke.  I say lucky Mr. Stanford - right?  Unfortunately for him and his business associates, just because the media has other fish to fry doesn’t mean the SEC does - but more on that in a minute.

It shouldn’t be such a surprise to Mr. Bernard Madoff or his family and business associates that when you deceive a whole slew of powerful people and institutions and oh, by the way, burn through $50 billion of other peoples’ money - you might just be sued by some of the victims.  This of course is exactly what is happening and let me just add that those doing the suing are going after every penny or any asset with tangible value.  Madoff started transferring assets and sending money to family members almost immediately, but he has clearly been found out - so the lawsuits will ensure that what remains will probably mostly end up with the lawyers - but better than Madoff or anyone he wants to have it.  Bernard’s brother Peter recently received some bad news when he learned that he had to return the vintage Aston Martin that was purchased for him last year - if this was only his biggest problem.

As for Mr. Stanford, he vehemently denies any wrongdoing and maintains that the SEC decided to make his company the scapegoat after completely missing the Madoff scam for two decades or longer.  Apparently, while there are some shady things that went on at Stanford Financial, they hadn’t yet spent the entire $8 billion that they brought in with high-yield CDs and there is some indication that significant assets are still held by the firm.  This hasn’t discouraged the SEC and according to spokesman John Nester, “We stand by our allegations.”  And there you have it.  I bet James M. Davis and Laura Pendergest-Holt are hoping all the money can be accounted for - or they will be joining R. Allen in the pokey for a long time!

“Since Thomas Rowe Price, Jr., founded our company in 1937 - in the heart of the Great Depression - the firm has witnessed many market downturns, including the long slow 1973-74 bear market…the bursting of the technology bubble in the early 2000s and subsequent broad market decline.  Although the magnitude and duration of the declines have varied, one thing has held true.  The markets have always come back.” - Edward C. Bernard, Chairman, T. Rowe Price

It has been a rough ride now for a long time - so much and for so long that I am reluctant to make any suggestions or even mild predictions on when we will begin to see anything significantly positive.  I don’t know about you, but it is impossible for me to grasp the enormity of the trillions of dollars of “toxic” debt that we are only beginning to understand.  The financial casualties and corresponding numbers are so far-reaching and incomprehensible that it makes my head spin.  I think it is safe to say that every individual and institution on this planet has been affected by now.

Of course this major economic mess has become the ultimate political debate in the U.S.  Finger-pointing and highly charged theatrical accusations prevent constructive consensus.  If there is a proper path for steering the world out of this mess - we can’t even come close to agreeing on what it is.  I tend to believe this is a classic example of a situation where “there are no answers - only choices.”  Being more of a Keynesian economist than anything else, I do believe that it is in the best interest of everyone for the government to step in and take action - to ensure liquidity, minimize systemic failures, and support the creation of jobs.  The real question for me is - how far should the government go?  Just maybe the burden being created is too great.  Maybe this is deficit spending beyond what we can ever hope to recover from - I just don’t know! 

In the early 1930s, President Roosevelt was criticized for not preventing more bank and business failures - which prolonged the Great Depression.  Some (Democrats) are convinced that Roosevelt acted brilliantly, while others (Republicans) blame him for everything bad that has happened over the past sixty years.  One thing that most seem to agree on is that it took World War II to bring prosperity back - at least in the U.S.  Well…I for one would rather not experience a world war - so let’s hope and pray we have taken the proper course of action.  Please feel free to post your good news!

“The stupefying losses in mortgage-related securities came in large part because of flawed, history-based models used by salesmen, rating agencies and investors.  These parties looked at loss experience over periods when home prices rose only moderately and speculation in houses was negligible.  They then made this experience a yardstick for evaluating future losses.  They blissfully ignored the fact that house prices had recently skyrocketed, loan practices had deteriorated and many buyers had opted for houses they couldn’t afford…Investors should be skeptical of history-based models.  Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive.  Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols.  Our advice: beware of geeks bearing formulas.” - Warren Buffett, February 2009

I for one have the utmost respect and admiration for Mr. Buffett and although even ”The Wizard of Omaha” isn’t always right, he certainly hits the nail on the head more often than not.  So while I have about given up on offering insight at the moment (at least until we hit bottom), I won’t hesitate to direct you to the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders letter that just hit the web.  I strongly suggest you read Mr. Buffett’s commentary and carefully consider what he has to say.  You never know, your future prosperity might just depend upon it.  To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.:

“As a company founded in the midst of the Great Depression - an environment of despair and negativity - we have a long-proven understanding of how even the most severe down cycles can bring opportunities that yield significant benefits in the long run.  This well-grounded approach when making investment decisions and giving investment advice will benefit our clients in these tumultuous times as never before.” - R. Allen Stanford, 2008

Long before the Madoff scandal could fade into history (and we still haven’t a clue how he pulled it all off for so long), it would appear there is yet another “brilliant” financier that lived like a king by scamming others.  Fortunately I didn’t give my money to either of these jokers - at least that I know about, but I probably could have been sucked in like so many others given the right set of circumstances.  I feel as though my posts of late read like a bad Hollywood movie blog but they capture real life events and hopefully they will help us all be better investors with a nose for a scam.

For those of you that don’t know anything about R. Allen Stanford, I suggest you take a look by following the link.  He is truly an interesting cat.  My first exposure to Mr. Stanford was back in 2004.  My wife and I found ourselves on the lovely Caribbean island of Antigua for vacation.  While walking around St. Johns, the largest town/city, I quickly noticed that Stanford Financial and the Bank of Antigua seemed to be quite prominent.  Just by happenstance, I picked up the local paper and there was an article that mentioned Mr. Stanford.  I recall it suggested that he had been accused of questionable practices involving investment and improper influence of local politicians.  I was rather intrigued and so when I returned to the States, I researched Mr. Stanford a bit and it became apparent that he was quite the player indeed.  In addition to his investment firm and the banks he operated, I was somewhat interested with his plans for development in the Caribbean so when we were planning a trip to Antigua again in 2006 I attempted to set up a meeting with Mr. Stanford.  At one point I thought I would get the chance to meet with him, but he ultimately blew me off and now I am quite confident this was actually a very good thing.

Upon our return to Antigua, it was quite obvious that Mr. Stanford had continued to expand his presence on the island.  He had built a new cricket field next to the airport and it seemed that Stanford was displayed everywhere.  It all seemed just a bit overdone - but very few would have known what was actually going on.  I thought at the time that possibly he was involved in some money laundering for wealthy South Americans - but on the surface he seemed to be doing some good things for Antigua so I forgot about it all once the vacation was over.

Fast forward to February 2009 and out of the blue it is reported on the news that R. Allen Stanford and two of his top executives are being sought in connection with some kind of Ponzi scheme involving high-yield CDs and the Bank of Antigua.  While I was floored at first, it didn’t take long for me to decide that I really wasn’t all that surprised.  As we all realize sooner or later, making money takes a lot of effort and Mr. Stanford made it look far too easy.  One of the best articles that gives more detail on the whole ordeal is Allen Stanford: The Antigua Triangle published February 22 in Times Online.

So it would appear that once again, some smuck and his possibly not-so-clueless employees have duped thousands of people out of huge sums of money.  Many thought they were protecting themselves from the tumultuous equity markets only to apparently lose everything so that Mr. Stanford could live the high life jetting around the globe, sponsoring cricket tournaments and yacht races, not to mention building opulent palaces and office buildings.  I just heard that of the roughly $8 billion that was supposedly deposited in his banks, the authorities are now only able to account for $250 million.  All I can say is that while it is doubtful I will ever experience the grand lifestyle that Mr. Stanford has enjoyed for so long - I wouldn’t trade places with him for all the money that evaporated in the banks of Antigua…

“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.” - Thomas Jefferson

A friend of mine, who happens to run a local BB&T bank, sent me an interview of the recently retired Chairman of BB&T Corp, John A. Allison that was in American Banker - The Financial Services Daily.  I have read that Mr. Allison is a somewhat highly regarded bank executive and this might be debatable, but one thing is for sure - he is confident that he knows what caused the financial mess we are now living through.  I didn’t find this article online when I searched, so I thought readers would find some of what he said quite interesting.

Mr. Allison’s views on the root causes of the mess we’re now in:

“There are certainly individual financial institutions that have made some pretty serious errors.  But the root causes, however, are government policy, and I think there are four primary culprits in this regard: 1.  The Federal Reserve, which has, in my opinion, mismanaged the interest rates and monetary policy by driving rates down too low and raising them too high and that has distorted economic calculation.  2.  The existence of FDIC insurance, which has allowed people to raise money they couldn’t have in a true free market.  3. Housing in a broad context where the government tried to encourage above-market rate of homeownership under the theory that homeownership is always good.  Homeownership in general is good, but giving someone a home is not necessarily good, and particularly if they’re not able to pay for it…Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the No. 1 villians because of their magnitude…They were the ones who created the subprime crisis.  4.  Finally, the Securities and Exchange Commission is largely to blame.  Fair-value accounting has certainly accelerated the problems.  If we had had it in the early 1990’s, we would have had an economic collapse.  It is a very poor accounting concept.  Personally, I would just get rid of it tomorrow.”

Mr. Allison’s comments on which banks will survive:

“Through a very non-market-driven process, you have potentially created an oligopoly in the banking business, with four to nine institutions depending on how you look at it…Look at Citigroup.  It failed twice last year and even more times during my career.  That’s not good, and it creates a challenge.  While there are some economies of scale, you can say it’s not obvious that having more than a trillion dollars in assets is a good thing.  BB&T can compete very effectively against these big banks, but they have a…fundamental, long-term, potential competitive funding advantage if they are basically perceived as being subsidized or protected by the government.  It’s artificial, and you can argue that it is adverse selection.  Citibank shouldn’t be here…”

Mr. Allison’s thoughts on redeeming qualities to the Tarp:

“Only in one context.  Tarp wasn’t necessary except that the government created a panic and they probably had to do something about it.  But they didn’t need to create the panic to begin with.”

Mr. Allison’s views on when we will know we have hit bottom and how much longer until things get better:

“I think the biggest indicator will be the stabilization of real estate prices.  It is amazing to me how little focus has been put on fixing these real estate markets.  Until you bottom real estate, you’re not going to fix the economy.  I think the market will bottom in less than 18 months, but it will take at least 18 months before we see a meaningful recovery.  I think BB&T will be very advantaged on the other side.  We have an operating model and a culture that can compete more effectively over the long term.”

DBP Disclaimer: Although I generally agree with Mr. Allison’s comments, I am not suggesting they are correct, nor do I have any reason to believe that his timetable for recovery is valid in specific terms.

“In any country where talent and virtue produce no advancement, money will be the national god.  Its inhabitants will either have to possess money or make others believe that they do.  Wealth will be the highest value, poverty the greatest vice.  Those who have money will display it in every imaginable way.  If their ostentation does not exceed their fortune, all will be well.  But if their ostentation does exceed their fortune they will ruin themselves.  In such a country, the greatest fortunes will vanish in the twinkling of an eye.” - Denis Diderot, 1774

I realize the whole Madoff scandal is old news by now, but even considering the startling stream of financial news of disappearing investment banks, gargantuan bailouts and record layoffs, I can’t quite get past what Madoff did and how he was able to get away with it for so long.

For me, the more I learn about Madoff’s reported tactics, the more terrified I am.  Not because I could lose money directly, but because someone who was respected and trusted by some of the most prominent people and organizations in the world would could pull off such a shocking crime.  He duped them all and now they must pick up the pieces.  So how many other Madoffs are out there taking advantage of people and institutions right now?  Hopefully not many more but I wouldn’t bet on it.

There are at least five questions I hope to learn the answers to as I continue to follow the unfolding story.  First, why would such an accomplished and respected man engage in such despicable tactics to begin with?  At least on the surface it would appear that Madoff started out on the right track.  He formed his own trading firm in 1960 and after struggling to compete with the big NYSE firms, he helped develop an electronic system to disseminate quotes and set his firm apart from competitors.  Eventually the technology he helped develop led to the formation of the NASDAQ electronic stock exchange.  Madoff went on to serve as the NASDAQ chairman of the board of directors.  Impressive if you ask me.

Second, did he really believe he would get away with it all when he started?  If he did, he clearly wasn’t terribly bright after all or he was delusional.  Third, how many other people were knowingly involved in this mass deception?  There is no way anyone can convince me that one man fooled and deceived hundreds and maybe thousands of people out of billions of dollars for over twenty years without help from others.  I expect quite a list of accomplices by the time this goes to trial.  Fourth, how in the world did the SEC fail to recognize what was actually going on?  It is common knowledge that outside analysts have been throwing flags for years - and yet nothing was uncovered (apparently).  And finally, was bribery and/or coercion involved in keeping the deception under wraps so the scheme could continue much longer than it would have otherwise?  It is certainly possible and maybe even likely considering what we now know.

If you can shed some light on this bizarre mystery then I certainly look forward to your comments and one more thing…think twice or maybe ten times before you invest your money anywhere these days.